Virtuous Circle: Guns Pediatricians Polio and Tipping

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Pediatricians Should Know Better-Lead With the Head Not the Heart

Mrs. C and I disagree on the subject of firearms in the home. Understandably she emphasizes the maternal concerns of child safety and opposes firearms in our home while I believe crime prevention and firearm education are overriding. We never seem to get anywhere in these discussions. I might add that we live in a community where doors are rarely locked and people keep their keys in their cars. I believe this is related to the high concentration of firearms in the community while she is agnostic on this point.

It was very distressing to me that the American Academy of Pediatrics has not only affirmed a policy that advocates the removal of handguns from the home but more alarmingly reaffirmed its policy of advocating the banning of handguns and semi-automatic weapons entirely. This reminded me of my neighbor who has the very sensible attitude that “while I don’t want firearms in my home I’m glad my neighbors have them”
Convicted felons say that they are more deterred by armed victims than by the police. In the United States, where roughly 50 percent of households are armed, only 13 percent of burglaries occur with residents at home. In contrast, in Britain, where homeowners are disarmed, 50 percent of home burglaries take place with the residents present. Here
That firearms in the hands of private citizenry prevent crime is a staple of conservative thinking but seems never to have occurred to the American Academy of Pediatrics. Perhaps the medical profession, traditionally conservative, now reacts in a reflexively liberal way i.e. as an elite rather than being ideologically neutral and empirical in formulating policy.

Directly from the AAP statement is this quote.
· "The AAP advocates that a coordinated, comprehensive national surveillance data system be maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as well as the National Center for Health Statistics. "

Perhaps if we took an epidemiological approach we could find some common ground or at least determine if we agree or disagree on fact or on principle. All this leads me to the concept of “Tipping”. Long appreciated by epidemiologists, this principle can be summarized as” the point at which an ordinary and stable phenomenon-a low-level flu outbreak- can turn into a public-health crisis. “ From Malcolm Gladwell's original New Yorker article Here which served as a prelude to his book . Gladwell looks at a decrease in crime at some point being non-linear with respect to various policing inputs-getting just one more criminal off the street could have a large effect on decreasing crime. At some point a virtuous circle occurs in which decreased crime results in, for example, more ordinary citizens on the street-more eyes and ears available which results in less crime which results in more eyes and ears etc. Or fewer criminals means a better chance of young people being influenced by positive role models which means less crime which results in more positive environment which means the development of more positive role models which means less crime.

Similarly for firearms in a community: Think of each home or individual with a firearm as being successfully immunized against crime. Now the theme of herd immunity comes in. For certain immunizations e.g. the common childhood ones of diphtheria, tetanus etc-only the individual receiving the inoculation is protected. For others notably oral polio vaccine-each successfully immunized individual also protects unimmunized individual by decreasing the reservoir available for the given pathogen. A critical mass of firearms will protect the entire community not just those actually armed. Moreover this will occur in a non-linear way which epidemiologists could quantify and encourage. When a criminal perceives that there is a high likelihood of being confronted with a firearm he will seek other venues. My neighbor’s firearms protect me whether I have them or not.
What is the positive tipping point in a community? How much crime is actually prevented.? Here and here Why is there an inverse correlation between violent crime and firearm possession? How wide is the circumference of protection? Will this apply equally to urban, suburban and rural areas? What are the long-term effects of victimhood? What are the positive psychological effects of empowerment? Shouldn’t the CDC with all of its resources and statistical sophistication be looking at this? Shouldn’t the American Academy of Pediatrics take these concerns into account? Ideology should not apply here. I believe the empiric evidence will support the second amendment. For historical perspective read this.

Comments

Wow, your migration to the right side of the political spectrum is move advanced that I had realized. Since I reside in the same philosophical neighborhood I welcome you as a fellow resident. John Coleman

Posted by: John Coleman | January 28, 2004 at 02:05 PM

You're a braver woman than I it was weeks before I could even begin to think about looking at the incisions from my lap. Even now I don't like to touch them.

They're...squishy.

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