It Could Happen
1)They continue to rot out from the inside-Williams and Giambi are through as productive players but continue to draw big salaries. Derek Jeter not only suffers predictable age and injury related production declines but becomes a head case when after a 3 error day fans start referring to him as Dreck.
Williams $12 Mill per through-2005
Giambi $17 Mill. per through 2008
Jeter $18 Mill.per through 2010
Sheffield and Brown are riddled with injuries and serve as expensive place holders. A Rod bats .275 with 32 home runs-predictable based on home park differences and the preponderance of right handed pitching the Yankees will face and is seen as a disappointment. Sheffield and Giambi are embroiled in the steroid controversy and are further distracted.
2)The creation of the YES network hailed as a brilliant exercise in vertical integration turns out to be merely a significant addition of operating leverage, During a downturn ad revenues could decline precipitously particularly if the Mets are on the upsurge External guaranteed revenues e.g. from MSG or another unrelated media outlet would have allowed matching of fixed revenues with fixed costs resulting in financilal flexibility in rebuilding. With the YES network, all revenues are variable.
3)The other owners finally tire of having their franchises marginalized and in the next round of agreements institute a salary cap with only minimal grandfather type protection. In 2006 the Yankees could have a team of ancient stars and minimal wage rookies with no flexibility at all.
4)The cumulative effect of the luxury tax eats away at the integrity of the balance sheet.
5)Steinbrenner suffers a stroke and the team is paralyzed. An operating committee is formed to run the franchise which includes the now numerous creditors, including cable operators and stringent spending curbs are implemented.
6) The Yankees finish first in 2004 but lose to the Red Sox in the playoff. The Red Sox go on to win the World Series putting a close to the worlds oldest and most tiresome morality play. Interest nation wide in baseball declines in 2005. The Yankees finish third in 2005. The Red Sox also aging and top heavy finish second behind Toronto A surging Oriole club finishes only one game behind the Yankees.
7)New York city behind a populist new mayor decides to play hardball with the Yankees and sues the Yankees on some abuse of facilities pretext. Traffic jams become even worse and attendance declines to below 1.5 million.
8)Manager Greg Nettles is fired on July 4 2006 with the Yankees behind the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Gary Sheffield fresh from an off season rehab stint (Dwigt Gooden convinced him dietary supplements are drugs of abuse) finds God, prompting Nettles to quip"Where is Cliff Johnson when you really need him". Mets take first place that weekend behind manager Willie Randolph. A thirty two year old Derek Jeter breaks his wrist making the pivot at second base and talks of retiring. Insurance doesn’t cover his injuries because his policy was for injuries received playing shortstop, first base or the outfield only.
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